Quantiva
Cost Development
Producer prices, energy, wages and freight
Cost Pressure — Composite Index i
Equal-weighted average of the five cost drivers below — Year-over-Year (%)
Simple average of five monthly YoY series: (1) Ø Raw Materials, (2) Electronics PPI, (3) EU Energy, (4) EU Wages, (5) Deep sea freight — each weighted 20%
EU + GlobalCost DevelopmentFRED + Eurostat% YoY
Producer Price Index — Raw Materials i
Aluminium, copper, steel, plastic — rebased to 100 at period start
USACost DevelopmentFREDindex
Raw Materials — Year-over-Year i
Same four materials, % change vs. same month last year. Badge shows the four-material average
USACost DevelopmentFRED% YoY
Producer Price Index — Industrial Products i
Electronic components, machinery, metal products — rebased to 100 at period start
USACost DevelopmentFREDindex
Industrial Products — Year-over-Year i
Electronic components, % change vs. same month last year
USACost DevelopmentFRED% YoY
Energy Prices i
Energy prices, rebased to 100 at the start of the window
US · EU · DECost DevelopmentFREDindex
Energy Prices — Year-over-Year i
EU electricity prices, % change vs. same month last year
EUCost DevelopmentFRED% YoY
Wage Cost Growth i
Production wage increases (% YoY) — USA, EU, China, Japan, Germany
US · EU · DECost DevelopmentFRED / Eurostat% YoY
Wage Growth — Monthly Trend i
EU production wages, % change vs. same month last year
EUCost DevelopmentEurostat% YoYquarterly, filled
Unit Labour Costs i
Labour cost per unit of output — the competitiveness measure, not just the wage bill
EU · DECost DevelopmentEurostatindex
Packaging Machinery
Filling, sealing, labelling and end-of-line equipment

Segment intelligence

What analysts argue about this sector, checked against the live numbers on this dashboard. Panels run on live feeds unless a card says otherwise; reported company figures always carry the source and the date they were stated.

Signal Chains — What Follows From What i
Each chain is one argument analysts make about machinery OEMs, traced from the signal that moves first to the number that settles it
DE · EU · USIndustry dataifo + VDMA + Eurostat + FREDchain check
Pricing Stance — Threshold Check i
Three decision rules, each evaluated against live data. They were written to change a pricing decision, not to describe the market
DE · USIndustry dataEurostat + FRED + USITCrule check
Machinery Turnover — Nominal vs Real i
German machinery turnover deflated by the machinery producer price index, so price effects are separated from volume
GermanyIndustry dataEurostatindex, 2021 = 100
OEM Peer Benchmark i
Reported figures from published annual and quarterly reports. Fiscal years differ, currencies differ, and segment definitions differ
DE · CH · USIndustry dataCompany reportsReported, not a live feed
Aftermarket Share & Margin i
Where the recurring revenue sits, and what it earns. The share column is not comparable across firms without reading the definition
GlobalIndustry dataCompany reports + consultancy benchmarksDefinitions differ per company
Further Reading i
Where each claim on this page comes from, and where to go next when a number needs checking
DE · EU · USIndustry dataPrimary sources
Source Triangulation Matrix i
Every segment KPI carries a primary source and a source that can contradict it. A number confirmed by only one source is not confirmed
DE · EU · USIndustry dataMethod

Shared macro cards

The same indicators every segment gets, filtered to this page.

ifo Business Climate — Germany i
Manufacturing confidence balance — ~2-month lead on turning points
GermanyIndustry dataFRED / OECDbalanceOECD-harmonised version of the ifo survey
Machinery Order Intake — VDMA i
German manufacturing order inflow and order books
GermanyIndustry dataFRED / OECDbalanceProxy — VDMA's own machinery series is members-only
Order Intake & Backlog i
Manufacturing new orders and how many months of work the order book holds
USAIndustry dataFRED% YoY / months
Business Confidence i
Manufacturing PMI by country
US · EU · CN · JP · DEIndustry dataOECDindex
Equipment Utilization i
Capacity utilization rate by sector
USAIndustry dataFRED%
Business Registrations i
New business registrations — the leading counterpart to insolvencies
EU · DEIndustry dataEurostatindex
Insolvency Statistics i
Bankruptcy declarations index
EU · DEIndustry dataEurostatindex
Import Price Indices i
Import prices for components from Asia
USAIndustry dataFREDindex
Tariff Rates & Trade Policy i
Current tariff rates and recent changes
US · EU · CN · JPIndustry dataWorld Bank%2022 latest

Your selected indicators

Anything you assign to Packaging Machinery in the Data Atlas appears here.

Nothing assigned to Packaging Machinery yet

Open the Data Atlas, set an indicator's segment to Packaging Machinery, and switch it on.

Metal Working Machinery
Machine tools, forming, cutting and CNC equipment
ifo Business Climate — Germany i
Manufacturing confidence balance — ~2-month lead on turning points
GermanyIndustry dataFRED / OECDbalanceOECD-harmonised version of the ifo survey
Machinery Order Intake — VDMA i
German manufacturing order inflow and order books
GermanyIndustry dataFRED / OECDbalanceProxy — VDMA's own machinery series is members-only
Order Intake & Backlog i
Manufacturing new orders and how many months of work the order book holds
USAIndustry dataFRED% YoY / months
Business Confidence i
Manufacturing PMI by country
US · EU · CN · JP · DEIndustry dataOECDindex
Equipment Utilization i
Capacity utilization rate by sector
USAIndustry dataFRED%
Business Registrations i
New business registrations — the leading counterpart to insolvencies
EU · DEIndustry dataEurostatindex
Insolvency Statistics i
Bankruptcy declarations index
EU · DEIndustry dataEurostatindex
Import Price Indices i
Import prices for components from Asia
USAIndustry dataFREDindex
Tariff Rates & Trade Policy i
Current tariff rates and recent changes
US · EU · CN · JPIndustry dataWorld Bank%2022 latest

Your selected indicators

Anything you assign to Metal Working Machinery in the Data Atlas appears here.

Nothing assigned to Metal Working Machinery yet

Open the Data Atlas, set an indicator's segment to Metal Working Machinery, and switch it on.

Agricultural Machinery
Tractors, harvesters and field equipment
ifo Business Climate — Germany i
Manufacturing confidence balance — ~2-month lead on turning points
GermanyIndustry dataFRED / OECDbalanceOECD-harmonised version of the ifo survey
Machinery Order Intake — VDMA i
German manufacturing order inflow and order books
GermanyIndustry dataFRED / OECDbalanceProxy — VDMA's own machinery series is members-only
Order Intake & Backlog i
Manufacturing new orders and how many months of work the order book holds
USAIndustry dataFRED% YoY / months
Business Confidence i
Manufacturing PMI by country
US · EU · CN · JP · DEIndustry dataOECDindex
Equipment Utilization i
Capacity utilization rate by sector
USAIndustry dataFRED%
Business Registrations i
New business registrations — the leading counterpart to insolvencies
EU · DEIndustry dataEurostatindex
Insolvency Statistics i
Bankruptcy declarations index
EU · DEIndustry dataEurostatindex
Import Price Indices i
Import prices for components from Asia
USAIndustry dataFREDindex
Tariff Rates & Trade Policy i
Current tariff rates and recent changes
US · EU · CN · JPIndustry dataWorld Bank%2022 latest
Milk & Dairy Prices i
Consumer dairy price index, rebased to 100 — US, Euro Area, Germany (China & Japan: no free feed)
US · EU · DEAgriculturalFREDindex
Crop Prices — Global Benchmarks i
World market prices — Wheat, Corn, Soybeans (USD / metric ton)
GlobalAgriculturalFRED / IMF$ per tonne

Your selected indicators

Anything you assign to Agricultural Machinery in the Data Atlas appears here.

Nothing assigned to Agricultural Machinery yet

Open the Data Atlas, set an indicator's segment to Agricultural Machinery, and switch it on.

Economic Cycle
GDP, inflation and industrial production
GDP Growth Rates i
Real GDP growth, % per year
US · EU · CN · JP · DEEconomic CycleWorld Bank% p.a.
Consumer Price Index i
Consumer price inflation, % year on year — USA, EU, China, Japan, Germany
US · EU · CN · JP · DEEconomic CycleFRED% YoY
Industrial Production Index i
Industrial production index (Base = 100)
US · EU · CN · JP · DEEconomic CycleFRED + Eurostatindex
Data Atlas
Every indicator available from a free API, verified against the live source. Tick Show to add one to Individual Selection.
0 selected
Calendar
When the next reading of each indicator is due, and which ones are already late.

How these dates are worked out

Every date here is expected, not official. For the indicators with a fixed public schedule the release rule is stored directly: initial claims every Thursday, the Fed's H.8 every Friday, ifo around the 25th. For the rest the date is derived from the indicator's own behaviour, taking the newest reading the dashboard holds and adding one period plus the publication lag that source has actually been running at.

Use it to plan when to look, not to trade on. The binding calendars are published by BLS, Eurostat, the Federal Reserve and Destatis.

Decision Log
What you looked at, what you concluded, and what you did about it, with the date it happened.

Why this exists

Under the StaRUG crisis-detection duty and in any later Insolvenzverschleppung argument, the question is rarely whether the data existed. It is whether management looked at it, drew a conclusion, and acted. A chart that was on screen proves nothing after the fact; a dated entry saying what was on screen and what followed is evidence.

Each entry stores the dashboard's headline readings automatically, so the record cannot drift from what was actually shown. Add your own assessment and the action taken.

Where this is stored. Entries live in this browser only. They are never uploaded, never leave the machine, and are not visible to anyone else using the dashboard. Clearing site data deletes them, so export regularly and keep the file with your board papers.

News
Reporting that explains what the indicators are doing. Every article is tied to the KPI it moves, and shows up as a marker on that chart.
Evidence Review
What the research literature says about each indicator: whether it leads, coincides with, or lags the machinery cycle.
Supply Chains
Supply-chain pressure, supplier delivery times and freight rates
Supply Chain Pressure Index i
Standard deviations from historical average
GlobalSupply ChainsNY Fedstd deviations
Supplier Delivery Times i
Diffusion index — rising means suppliers are taking longer
USASupply ChainsFREDdiffusion
Freight Cost Indices i
Ocean and road freight prices, rebased to 100 at the start of the window
USASupply ChainsFREDindex
Cass Freight Index — Shipment Volumes i
Freight volumes moved across North America. Volumes turn before prices do.
USASupply ChainsFRED / Cassindex
Early Warning
Financing conditions and recession risk. Insolvency is a liquidity event, so these track whether credit is available, not just whether demand is strong.

What this section can and cannot do

These indicators cover the external early-warning layer that German law requires directors to maintain under the StaRUG crisis-detection duty: market, cost and financing conditions. They are not a going-concern prognosis (Fortführungsprognose). That needs company-specific figures no external feed can supply, above all a rolling 13-week liquidity plan, your own order book and cancellation rate, customer payment behaviour, and covenant headroom.

All series here are US-sourced. No free euro-area equivalent exists on FRED, though US credit conditions are a global risk signal. The ECB publishes CISS and its Bank Lending Survey through its own portal if you want the European layer added.

Sentiment vs Activity — Divergence Check i
Four matched pairs. In each, the same subject is measured twice: once by asking people, once by counting what happened
Standard deviations from each series' own ten-year average, so the two sides are comparable. Both are oriented so that higher means stronger
US · EU · DEEarly WarningEurostat + FREDz-score, 10y
Stated opinion — what people said in a survey. Business confidence, loan officers' own judgement, the Philadelphia Fed's new-orders balance. Moves early, and moves on mood as well as fact.
Recorded activity — what was actually counted. Industrial output, orders booked at Census, loans on bank balance sheets. Slower to arrive, but it happened.
Reading the bars — each is standard deviations from that series' own ten-year average, so a longer bar means further from normal, not a bigger number. Both point the same way: right is stronger. When the yellow bar reaches further right than the green one, confidence has run ahead of what firms are doing. When green leads, the recovery is real but not yet believed.
Yield Curve — 10Y minus 3M i
Below zero means inversion, the most documented recession signal there is
USAEarly WarningFREDpercentage points
Recession Probability i
Smoothed US recession probability, a single number for a board paper
USAEarly WarningFRED%
High-Yield Credit Spread i
Widening spreads mean debt financing is drying up
USAEarly WarningFRED / ICE BofApercentage points
Bank Lending Standards i
Net share of banks tightening standards on business loans
USAEarly WarningFREDnet %
Business Loan Delinquency Rate i
Share of business loans not being serviced — the closest thing to insolvency in the data
USAEarly WarningFRED%
Commercial & Industrial Loans i
Year-on-year growth in business lending. Contraction means financing is drying up.
USAEarly WarningFRED% YoY
Initial Jobless Claims i
Weekly filings, the fastest hard data available on the economy
USAEarly WarningFREDclaims
Financial Conditions Index i
Chicago Fed NFCI — above zero is tighter than average
USAEarly WarningFREDindex
Systemic Stress — Euro Area i
ECB composite indicator of systemic stress, the European counterpart to the Chicago Fed index
Euro areaEarly WarningECBindex